Sebastian Hinze

Product

The Short List

A recipe site and iPhone app for cooking without ultra-processed food.

Visit tslfood.com Read more about The Short List

recipes: 9
languages: 2
articles: 4

The Short List home page in light mode: featured recipe Kimchi

The Short List home page in dark mode: featured recipe Kimchi

The Short List on a phone: this week's recipe, Kimchi

Forecasting

V85 Model Lab

I built a system that estimates every horse's chance of winning in ATG's V85, compares it with how the crowd bets, and looks for the races where the crowd is wrong.

Open the Model Lab Read more about V85 Model Lab

+0.9 %

better than the crowd at pricing V85 winners, on 600 V85 races. 95 % range +0.1 % to +1.8 %.

Read with care: the backtest uses the crowd's final betting %, so it is optimistic.

Nats per race, added up over 600 V85 races on 75 race days. 95 % range per race +0.002 to +0.032. It uses the crowd's final betting %, so it is optimistic.

I take ideas to live products, and test models honestly against real data.

Two projects. Both live.

The Short List

V85 Model Lab

Built with Claude. Both projects, and this site, were made working together with it.